Epidemiological characteristics of coal workers' pneumoconiosis during 2006-2015 in Jiangsu Province and trend predicted by the grey dynamics model GM

Objective To analyze the characteristics of coal workers' pneumoconiosis from 2006 to 2015 in Jiangsu Province, and to predict the incidence trend in coming years and further to strengthen the prevention and management of coal workers' pneumoconiosis.

Methods The data collected by Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention was used, the demographic characteristics of coal workers' pneumoconiosis cases in Jiangsu Province from 2006 to 2015 were analyzed. The grey dynamics model GM (1.1) was established to predict the trend of coal workers' pneumoconiosis in Jiangsu Province in the next three years.

Results There were 1 270 cases of coal workers' pneumoconiosis reported in Jiangsu Province from 2006 to 2015. Totally 307 new cases (accounting for 24.2%) were reported in 2010. Most cases had a history of exposure to coal mine dust during 1970 to 1980 with time for 20 to 30 years. Most cases were engaged in driving, coal extraction or comprehensive job in the coal mine. They were mainly distributed in Xuzhou, Nanjing, Wuxi, Yancheng and Zhenjiang cities. The age of onset varied from 50 to 60 years old. The time response equation \hat Y_(t+1)=-241.629 45 e^{-0.223 53 t} + 295.629 45, was obtained according to the Grey Dynamics Model GM(1.1). It indicated that new cases of coal workers' pneumoconiosis will be 20, 16 and 13 from 2016-2018 in Jiangsu Province.

Conclusion The incidence trend of coal workers' pneumoconiosis in Jiangsu Province in the next three years may be declining, but the incidence is still serious and more management work should be further strengthened.